ASO Chlef v MC Alger prediction

What to expect

ASO Chlef host MC Alger at the end of October in the Algerian Ligue 1. The home side sit at the very bottom of the table, 16th of 16, with just one point from four games and a goal difference of minus 5. They are in the relegation zone, only one point ahead of US Biskra. MC Alger sit comfortably in fifth place, six points from two games and a plus 3 goal difference. They are just behind CS Constantine and level with ES Ben Aknoun. Both clubs played their previous match four days ago, so the fixture comes after a short turnaround for each side. The stakes are clear: ASO Chlef need a point to stay clear of the drop, while MC Alger look to keep their push for a top-four finish alive.

ASO Chlef have not won any of their last three matches. Their most recent game was a 1-0 loss away to JS Kabylie. Before that they fell 1-0 at home to MC Oran, and three games earlier they were beaten 3-0 away by CS Constantine. In those three fixtures they have scored no goals and have let in five. They have failed to find the net in each of those games, and only one of the matches featured three or more goals, but neither side scored in that encounter.

MC Alger arrive on the back of three straight victories. Their latest result was a 1-0 win at home over CR Temouchent. Prior to that they beat MB Rouissat 2-0, also at home, and before that they demolished Nigelec 5-0 on their own turf. Across those three games they have scored eight goals while keeping a clean sheet in every match. Only one of the three games produced three or more goals, and in that match both sides scored none.

When the two clubs have met before, the games have been tight affairs. The numbers we have suggest a low-scoring contest, with an average of 1.8 goals expected in total. ASO Chlef have a 54 % chance of scoring at least once, while MC Alger have a 66 % chance of finding the net. The likelihood of either side scoring twice or more is low – 17 % for ASO Chlef and 28 % for MC Alger. This points to a match that could be decided by a single goal or end level.

Our pick is MC Alger or a draw. The price of 1.20 is shorter than we think the game will be, giving us a good safety net. MC Alger’s recent clean-sheet run and stronger goal record make them the side more likely to take at least a point. For our pick to fail, ASO Chlef would need to score first and hold on, or both teams would have to remain scoreless. Both scenarios are possible but unlikely, so we feel comfortable backing MC Alger or a draw at the offered price.