What to expect
We expect about 0.8 goals from Js El Biar and 1.1 from Olympique Akbou, so Olympique Akbou come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.9 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Olympique Akbou to win. Olympique Akbou shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-1.1), and we make them about 36% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 36 out of 100. The price on offer is 3.80, which works out at about 26 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Js El Biar a draw or better. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 36%.
