How it turned out
We projected about 1.9 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Olympique Akbou to win 34%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.8 goals from Js El Biar and 1.1 from Olympique Akbou, so Olympique Akbou come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.9 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Olympique Akbou to win. Olympique Akbou shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-1.1), and we make them about 36% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 34 out of 100. The price on offer is 3.80, which works out at about 26 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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