What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Kalmar and 1.1 from Djurgardens IF, so Kalmar come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 2.7 goals (xG 1.6-1.1) and it takes three to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 53%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 53 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.10, which works out at about 48 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
One end-to-end spell, or a defensive mistake, and the goals can pile up before either side settles. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 53%.
