Orgryte v Sirius: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 4.0 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Orgryte to score 1 or fewer 69%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.4 goals from Orgryte and 2.6 from Sirius, so Sirius come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Sirius come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Orgryte to score 1 or fewer. This is about Orgryte's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.4 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 69%.

We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.36, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.