How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Ararat Armenia to win 64%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.7 goals from Shirak and 1.9 from Ararat Armenia, so Ararat Armenia come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Ararat Armenia come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Ararat Armenia to win. Ararat Armenia shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.7-1.9), and we make them about 66% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.38, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Ararat Armenia have won five of the last five meetings.
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