How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 3.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Salzburg and 1.1 from Sturm Graz, so Salzburg come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. We make this around 2.7 goals (xG 1.6-1.1), so the line leaves room: it takes five or more to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 81%).
We put the chance of that landing at about 79 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Sturm Graz have won two of the last five meetings, with three drawn.
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