What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Salzburg and 1.1 from Sturm Graz, so Salzburg come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. We make this around 2.7 goals (xG 1.6-1.1), so the line leaves room: it takes five or more to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 81%).
We put the chance of that landing at about 79 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
