How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Under 4.5 goals 71%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
SK Rapid host Tirol at home in the Austrian Bundesliga on 18 September 2026. Rapid sit second in the 12-team table with 15 points from six matches and a +11 goal difference. LASK are just ahead of them on the same points, while Salzburg trail by a single point. Both clubs are close in the race for European places, so the three points will matter. The numbers suggest Rapid are the stronger side, but both teams have shown they can find the net, so we expect chances at both ends.
Rapid come into this game on the back of two straight wins. In their last eight outings they have won six, lost two and never drawn. The most recent results were a 3-0 win away at Wolfsberger AC, a 5-2 victory away at Austria Klagenfurt and a 5-1 defeat away to Salzburg. Before that they beat Sturm Graz 3-1 at home, thrashed Grazer AK 8-0 at home and edged Ried 2-1 away. All three of their home games in the last three matches have been wins. In those eight games Rapid have scored 23 and let in 11, kept three clean sheets and failed to score only once. Six of the games featured three or more goals and both sides scored in four of them.
Tirol have had a mixed run in their last eight games, with two wins, three draws and three defeats. Their newest results are a 2-2 draw at home with Hartberg, a 1-0 away win over Austria Vienna and a 4-0 away win over A. Lustenau. Prior to that they lost 3-0 at home to Salzburg, fell 3-1 away to Altach and drew 1-1 at home with Sturm Graz. The team are unbeaten in their last three matches. On the road in the past four games they have won two and lost two. Over the eight-game stretch Tirol have scored 10 and conceded 12, kept two clean sheets and have been shut out twice. Four of those games produced three or more goals and both sides scored in four.
In the five most recent meetings between the two clubs Rapid have the edge, winning three times while Tirol have not won and two games ended in draws. Those encounters have averaged 2.4 goals each. The latest meeting was a 1-1 draw on 9 November 2025, showing that both sides are capable of scoring but also of holding each other off.
Our pick is Under 4.5 goals. The expected total for the match is about 3.1 goals, with Rapid likely to score around two and Tirol about one. The price of 1.35 is shorter than we think the game will be, which makes the bet attractive. We believe the game will stay below five goals about 71 % of the time. It would have to turn into a goal-fest – for example a 4-2 or higher result – for us to lose, which seems unlikely given the recent scoring patterns of both teams.
Recent results
SK Rapid have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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