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Football/Austrian Bundesliga/Sturm Graz v Tirol
Austrian Bundesliga · Merkur Arena Graz

Sturm Graz v Tirol prediction

Sturm Graz crestSturm Graz5th of 12 · 19 ptsDLDLL
v
Tirol crestTirolLLWDL

What to expect

We expect about 2.0 goals from Sturm Graz and 0.8 from Tirol, so Sturm Graz come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Sturm Graz come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Sturm Graz or Draw. This covers Sturm Graz or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.

We put the chance of that landing at about 89 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.17, which works out at about 85 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.

What the numbers say
✓Sturm Graz have not won any of their last five.
✓Tirol have won one of their last five.
✓Three of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.

Recent results

1 Aug 2026Tirol 1 - 1 Sturm Graz
14 Feb 2026Tirol 1 - 0 Sturm Graz
3 Dec 2025Sturm Graz 1 - 3 Tirol
7 Dec 2024Tirol 0 - 3 Sturm Graz
31 Aug 2024Sturm Graz 4 - 2 Tirol

The last five meetings are split 2-2, with one drawn.

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More Austrian Bundesliga fixtures

Full fixture list
LASK crestLASKvHartbergHartberg crest★★★★★
Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 2.1-1.1), and we make both teams to score about 61%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
Match outlookBoth teams to score · 1.68Share
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