What to expect
We expect about 0.8 goals from Arsenal Dzerzhinsk and 1.3 from Torpedo Zhodino, so Torpedo Zhodino come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Torpedo Zhodino (Draw No Bet). Torpedo Zhodino are favoured here (xG 0.8-1.3), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Torpedo Zhodino defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.36, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
A draw hands your stake back, so only an outright Arsenal Dzerzhinsk win beats you — but on the day nothing is guaranteed. The price is shorter than our own read of about 69%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.