What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from CRB and 1.2 from Sport Recife, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: CRB to win. CRB are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.3-1.2), and we make them about 38% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 37 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.92, which works out at about 52 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓CRB have won two of their last three.
✓Sport Recife have won one of their last five.