What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Fortaleza and 0.8 from Vila Nova, so Fortaleza come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Fortaleza or Draw. This covers Fortaleza or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.27, which works out at about 79 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
The last three meetings are split 1-1, with one drawn.
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