What to expect
We expect about 1.9 goals from Arda Kardzhali and 0.8 from Septemvri Sofia, so Arda Kardzhali come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Septemvri Sofia come into this on five straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Arda Kardzhali to win. Arda Kardzhali are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-0.8), and we make them about 67% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.62, which works out at about 62 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Arda Kardzhali have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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