How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 1. We made O'Higgins or Draw 71%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from O'Higgins and 1.1 from Ñublense, so O'Higgins come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: O'Higgins or Draw. This covers O'Higgins or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.28, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
O'Higgins have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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