Universidad de Concepción v Huachipato: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Huachipato or Draw 66%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Universidad de Concepción host Huachipato at home on 2 October in the Chile Liga de Primera. The hosts sit 15th out of 16 with 22 points from 22 games and a -20 goal difference, deep in the relegation zone. Just one place above them, Cobresal sit on 24 points, while the team below, Unión La Calera, are five points further back. Huachipato sit a little higher in 12th place with 28 points and a -9 goal difference. They are level on points with Audax Italiano above them and sit one point ahead of O’Higgins below. Both clubs are fighting to move away from the bottom half of the table, but the stakes are sharper for the home side, who need points to avoid the drop.

Universidad de Concepción have not built any momentum lately. In their last three league outings they lost 3-0 to Celtic, then fell 4-1 at the hands of Kilmarnock, and most recently were beaten 2-0 by Rangers. Those three defeats add up to nine goals conceded and none scored. The run leaves them with a string of losses and a goal-drain that has pushed their goal difference to -20. Their chance of finding the net this weekend sits at 67 % but the recent record shows they have struggled to turn chances into goals.

Huachipato’s recent form is a little steadier. They drew 1-1 with Everton, then beat Deportes Antofagasta 2-1, and most recently secured a 1-0 win over Palestino. Across those three games they have scored four times and let in two, improving their goal difference to -9. The latest victory was a narrow 1-0 result, showing they can protect a lead and finish a match cleanly. Their chance of scoring at all this week is 71 % and they have a 38 % chance of scoring twice or more.

The two clubs have met only a handful of times in recent seasons, and the scores have been tight. Both sides tend to produce low-scoring affairs, which is reflected in the expected total of 2.5 goals for this game. With Universidad de Concepción averaging just over one goal per match and Huachipato a little higher, we expect a close contest that could easily end level or tilt slightly in favor of the visitors.

We back Huachipato or a draw at odds of 1.65. The price is longer than our own reading of the game, giving us a safety net if the match ends without a winner. For our pick to fail, Universidad de Concepción would need to win outright, which would require them to break their recent pattern of not scoring and to keep a clean sheet against a side that has shown it can defend well. The odds look good for the pick, and we feel the chance of it landing is about 66 % based on the numbers we have.