What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Liaoning Tieren and 1.2 from Henan Songshan Longmen, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Liaoning Tieren come into this on three straight defeats. Henan Songshan Longmen come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.6 goals in total (xG 1.4-1.2), keeping it under more often than not (about 72%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.49, which works out at about 67 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
A goal against the run of play opens the game up, and a tight total can slip away fast. At around 72% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
