What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Qingdao Hainiu and 2.1 from Beijing Guoan, so Beijing Guoan come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Qingdao Hainiu come into this on five straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Qingdao Hainiu to score 1 or fewer. This is about Qingdao Hainiu's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.3 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 74%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.37, which works out at about 73 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
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