How it turned out
We projected about 4.0 goals; the game finished with 5.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.3 goals from Yunnan Yukun and 1.6 from Liaoning Tieren, so Yunnan Yukun come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 4.0 goals (xG 2.4-1.5) and it takes five to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 77%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.36, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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