What to expect
Como come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. Low-scoring lean. The model projects about 3.0 in total.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.67, which works out at about 60 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
What the numbers say
✓Liverpool have not won any of their last five.
✓Como are unbeaten in their last five — five wins and no draws.
One thing to watch
A goal against the run of play opens the game up, and a tight total can slip away fast. At around 64% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.