Arsenal v Man City: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.3 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Under 3.5 goals 77%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.2 goals from Arsenal and 1.1 from Man City, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Arsenal come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.3 goals in total (xG 1.2-1.1), keeping it under more often than not (about 79%). Clear chances should be at a premium.

We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.38, which works out at about 72 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.

Recent meetings