How it turned out
The game finished with 1 goal. We made Over 2.5 goals 68%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Qarabag come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. Goals expected. The model projects about 3.2 in total.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.76, which works out at about 57 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
What the numbers say
✓Dynamo Kyiv have won one of their last five.
✓Qarabag have won one of their last five.
One thing to watch
An early goal can kill the tempo just as easily as spark it, and a quiet second half leaves this short. At around 68% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
