CF Trival Valderas Alcoron v Leganes prediction

What to expect

We expect about 0.9 goals from CF Trival Valderas Alcoron and 2.6 from Leganes, so Leganes come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Our pick: Leganes to win. Leganes shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-2.6), and we make them about 76% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.

We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.15, which works out at about 87 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.