What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from CR Flamengo and 0.5 from Estudiantes de La Plata, so CR Flamengo come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Estudiantes de La Plata come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: CR Flamengo to win. CR Flamengo are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.6-0.5), and we make them about 66% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.41, which works out at about 71 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
CR Flamengo have won two of the last four meetings, with two drawn.
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