What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Fluminense FC and 1.3 from SE Palmeiras, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: SE Palmeiras or Draw. This covers SE Palmeiras or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.40, which works out at about 71 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
What the numbers say
✓SE Palmeiras are unbeaten in their last five — three wins and two draws.
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