How it turned out
We projected about 1.9 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Mirassol FC to win 41%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Mirassol FC and 0.8 from LDU de Quito, so Mirassol FC come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.9 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Mirassol FC to win. Mirassol FC are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.1-0.8), and we make them about 43% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 41 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.72, which works out at about 58 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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