How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Rijeka to win 47%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.9 goals from HNK Gorica and 1.3 from Rijeka, so Rijeka come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Rijeka to win. Rijeka shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-1.3), and we make them about 49% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 47 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.65, which works out at about 61 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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