How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Connah's Quay Nomads to win 74%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.4 goals from Connah's Quay Nomads and 0.9 from Llandudno FC, so Connah's Quay Nomads come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Connah's Quay Nomads come into this on five straight wins. Llandudno FC come into this on four straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Connah's Quay Nomads to win. Connah's Quay Nomads are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.4-0.9), and we make them about 76% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.41, which works out at about 71 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Connah's Quay Nomads have won two of the last two meetings.
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