How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Haverfordwest or Draw 79%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Haverfordwest host Flint Town United at home in the Cymru Premier on 3 October 2026. Haverfordwest sit 11th out of 16 with 10 points from 11 games and a goal difference of minus 9. They are in the relegation zone, five points behind Airbus UK Broughton who sit just above them and one point ahead of Briton Ferry Llansawel below. Flint Town United are 13th with five points from 11 games and a goal difference of minus 13, also in the drop zone. They sit four points behind Briton Ferry Llansawel and two points ahead of Trefelin BGC. Both clubs need points to move out of the danger area, so the match carries real pressure for survival.
Haverfordwest have played four games in their most recent run, two at home and two away. They beat Holywell Town 1-0 at home and then beat Briton Ferry Llansawel 3-1, also at home. After those wins they lost 1-0 away to Cardiff Met FC and then lost 1-0 away to Colwyn Bay. In those four matches they scored four goals and let in three. They kept one clean sheet, failed to score in two games and only one match saw three or more goals. The side is coming in on two straight defeats and they played just four days ago, so the turnaround is short.
Flint Town United’s last four fixtures give a mixed picture. They started with a 3-0 home win over Ammanford, then suffered a 4-1 away loss to Airbus UK Broughton, followed by a 5-0 away defeat at The New Saints, and most recently drew 1-1 at home with Cardiff Met FC. Over those four games they have scored five goals and conceded ten. They kept one clean sheet and were shut out once. Three of the four matches featured three or more goals, and both sides scored in two of them. Their most recent draw was a hard-fought 1-1, showing they can still find the net even after heavy defeats. Flint Town United played seven days ago, giving them a little more rest than their opponents.
When the two clubs have met before, the games have tended to be close and low-scoring. Both sides have shown they can keep a clean sheet but also have struggled to find the net regularly. This fixture is likely to follow that pattern, with a modest number of chances and a good chance of at least one goal. Haverfordwest have an 82 % chance of scoring at all and a 51 % chance of scoring twice or more, while Flint Town United have a 64 % chance of scoring and a 28 % chance of scoring twice. The combined goal expectation is just under three, suggesting a tight encounter.
We back Haverfordwest or a draw at 1.26. The price sits close to our reading of the game and gives a safety net if the home side does not win outright. Haverfordwest are the stronger side on the numbers and they need the points, but a loss would require them to fail to score and Flint Town United to keep a clean sheet – an outcome that is possible given both teams’ recent defensive frailties. If Haverfordwest manage to find a goal, the price looks good and our chance of being right is high. The pick should work unless the visitors pull off a surprise clean-sheet win.
Recent results
Haverfordwest have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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