How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Cardiff Met FC or Draw 64%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Llandudno FC host Cardiff Met FC at home in a Cymru Premier clash on 3 October 2026. Llandudno sit ninth in the 16-team table with 16 points from 11 games and a +3 goal difference. Cardiff Met are seventh, on 18 points and a +9 goal difference. Both clubs are inside the league’s European places, so a win could push them a step higher while a loss might see them slip down a spot. The two sides are only two points apart, making the three points on offer very important for their ambitions.
Llandudno come into this game after four matches without a win. Their most recent result was a 4-3 loss away to Cambrian United. Before that they fell 2-1 at The New Saints, drew 1-1 with Caernarfon at home and were beaten 4-1 by Barry Town away. In those four games they have scored six goals and let in eleven. Three of the fixtures featured three or more goals and both teams scored in each of the four matches. The side have now endured two straight defeats.
Cardiff Met’s last four outings have been mixed. They began with a 1-0 home win over Haverfordwest, then drew 2-2 with Caernarfon at home. Their third game was a 1-0 away loss to Connah’s Quay Nomads, followed by a 1-1 draw away at Flint Town United. Across these four games they have scored four goals and also conceded four. They kept one clean sheet and were shut out once. The most recent draw with Flint Town United saw both sides find the net, and it came just four days before this fixture, giving Cardiff Met a short turnaround.
Our pick is Cardiff Met FC or a draw at odds of 1.68. The price is longer than we feel the game deserves, which gives us a safety net. Both clubs have a 78 % chance of scoring and a 44 % chance of scoring twice, so an open game with chances at both ends is likely. For our pick to fail, Llandudno would need to win outright, which would require them to improve sharply after two recent defeats. We see a 63 % chance of the pick succeeding, making it a sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
Recent results
Cardiff Met FC have won three of the last four meetings.
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