What to expect
We expect about 0.6 goals from Trefelin BGC and 2.0 from Colwyn Bay, so Colwyn Bay come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Trefelin BGC come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Colwyn Bay to win. Colwyn Bay shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.6-2.0), and we make them about 69% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.24, which works out at about 81 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
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