How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Sparta Prague to win 76%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.4 goals from Sparta Prague and 0.8 from Pardubice, so Sparta Prague come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Sparta Prague come into this on four straight wins. Pardubice come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Sparta Prague to win. Sparta Prague are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.4-0.8), and we make them about 78% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.33, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Sparta Prague have won four of the last five meetings.
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