What to expect
We expect about 2.3 goals from Viktoria Plzen and 0.8 from Slovacko, so Viktoria Plzen come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Slovacko come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Viktoria Plzen to win. Viktoria Plzen are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.3-0.8), and we make them about 77% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Slovacko to spoil this. We make it about 77% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
