How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Viktoria Plzen to win 75%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.3 goals from Viktoria Plzen and 0.8 from Slovacko, so Viktoria Plzen come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Viktoria Plzen to win. Viktoria Plzen are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.3-0.8), and we make them about 77% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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