How it turned out
We projected about 4.2 goals; the game finished with 2. We made FC Copenhagen to win 70%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
FC Copenhagen host Horses Østerbro on 11 September in the Superliga. Copenhagen sit near the top of the table while Horsens are fighting in the middle of the pack. Both teams are only a few points apart from the European places, so a win will help Copenhagen keep the pressure on the leaders and give Horsens a chance to climb. The numbers show Copenhagen averaging 2.7 goals per game and Horsens 1.5, so the home side looks clearly stronger.
Copenhagen have been in superb form. In their last eight matches they have won seven and lost only one. The most recent results are a 5-0 win at Odense, a 2-0 victory over Nordsjælland at home, a 3-1 win against SønderjyskE at home, a 4-0 loss to Viborg away, a 4-0 triumph at Randers and a 3-1 away win over Silkeborg. They have three wins in a row now and have won all four of their recent home games. In those eight games they have scored 25 and let in just eight, kept four clean sheets and only failed to score once. Most of the matches have been high-scoring, with seven of the eight featuring three or more goals.
Horsens have been less consistent. In their last eight fixtures they have three wins, two draws and three defeats. Their recent run includes a 5-2 away win over SønderjyskE, a 3-2 home loss to Viborg, a 2-1 home victory over Lyngby, a 2-1 win away at Odense, a 2-0 home defeat to Brøndby and a 2-1 loss away to Midtjylland. On the road they have won two of their last three games. Across those eight matches they have scored 13 and conceded 12, kept only one clean sheet and have been shut out twice. Six of the games have seen both sides score, and five have produced three or more goals.
The two clubs have met five times before. Copenhagen have won three of those meetings and Horsens have won two, with no draws. The games have averaged just over two goals each. The most recent encounter was a 4-1 victory for Copenhagen at Horsens on 12 March 2023. Given the recent form and the goal averages, we expect another open match with chances for both sides, but Copenhagen should have the edge.
Our pick is a Copenhagen win. The price of 1.26 is shorter than what we feel the game is worth, but the odds still give a good return for a side that scores almost three goals a game and has won their last three. We see a roughly 70 % chance of Copenhagen coming out on top. For this to go wrong they would need to be shut out and concede at least two goals, which would be unlikely given their defensive record and attacking firepower. Taking Copenhagen to win looks the cleaner play.
Recent results
FC Copenhagen have won three of the last five meetings.
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