How it turned out
The game finished with 2 goals.
What we said beforehand
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.3 goals in total (xG 1.1-1.2), keeping it under more often than not (about 55%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.97, which works out at about 51 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
What the numbers say
✓Horsens have not won any of their last five.
✓Brondby have won two of their last five.
✓Four of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in four of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
19 Feb 2023Brondby 5 - 2 Horsens
4 Sept 2022Horsens 0 - 2 Brondby
20 Dec 2020Horsens 1 - 2 Brondby
27 Sept 2020Brondby 2 - 1 Horsens
7 Jun 2020Horsens 3 - 2 Brondby
One thing to watch
It only takes one early goal to change how both sides play, and a low total can unravel in a single quick spell. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 55%.
