How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Midtjylland to score 2 or fewer 75%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Midtjylland and 1.1 from Brondby, so Midtjylland come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Brondby come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Midtjylland to score 2 or fewer. This is about Midtjylland's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.7 on the day, and the bet wants them to 2 or fewer, which we make about 74%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.38, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Midtjylland have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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