What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Dortmund and 2.1 from Bayern Munich, so Bayern Munich come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.9 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Bayern Munich come into this on four straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.8 goals between the two (xG 1.7-2.1), landing about 73% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.36, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
If one side settles for what they have, or the game turns cagey, the goals can dry up in a hurry. We make it about 73% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.