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Football/DFL-Supercup/Dortmund v Bayern Munich
DFL-Supercup

Dortmund v Bayern Munich: how it went

Dortmund crestDortmundLWLWW
1 - 2
Bayern Munich crestBayern MunichLDDWW
Full time

How it turned out

We projected about 3.8 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.7 goals from Dortmund and 2.1 from Bayern Munich, so Bayern Munich come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.8 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Dortmund come into this on two straight wins. Bayern Munich come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.7-2.1), and we make both teams to score about 72%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.

We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.44, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.

What the numbers say
✓Dortmund have won three of their last five.
✓Bayern Munich have won two of their last five.
✓Three of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in four of the last five meetings.

Recent meetings

28 Feb 2026Dortmund 2 - 3 Bayern Munich
18 Oct 2025Bayern Munich 2 - 1 Dortmund
12 Apr 2025Bayern Munich 2 - 2 Dortmund
30 Nov 2024Dortmund 1 - 1 Bayern Munich
30 Mar 2024Bayern Munich 0 - 2 Dortmund
Bayern Munich have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.

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