What to expect
We expect about 2.3 goals from Sarpsborg 08 and 1.3 from Aalesund, so Sarpsborg 08 come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.6 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Sarpsborg 08 to win. Sarpsborg 08 are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.3-1.3), and we make them about 63% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.76, which works out at about 57 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Sarpsborg 08 have won three of the last five meetings.
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