What to expect
We expect about 1.0 goals from Pärnu JK Vaprus and 1.7 from Nõmme JK Kalju, so Nõmme JK Kalju come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Pärnu JK Vaprus come into this on three straight defeats. Nõmme JK Kalju come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Nõmme JK Kalju to win. Nõmme JK Kalju shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-1.7), and we make them about 58% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 57 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.54, which works out at about 65 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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