Guiseley v Bradford prediction

What to expect

Guiseley host Bradford in the FA Cup on 3 October. Guiseley sit lower in the league table while Bradford sit higher, so the tie is a chance for the lower side to cause an upset. For Bradford the prize is progress to the next round and a chance to keep their good run going. The two clubs are far apart in the numbers we have – Bradford look the stronger side, but both teams have shown they can find the net.

Guiseley have not been in the spotlight lately, but the games they have played give a picture of their form. In their last three outings they beat a local side 2-1, then drew 0-0 with a fellow mid-table team, and most recently lost 3-0 at home to a strong opponent. Those results add up to one win, one draw and one loss, with three goals scored and four conceded. The side has shown they can keep a clean sheet, but they also have struggled to find the net against tougher opposition.

Bradford arrive on the back of three straight victories. Their most recent eight games, both home and away, have produced six wins and two defeats. The newest results are a 1-0 win at Luton, a 1-0 win at Notts County, a 1-0 win over Mansfield at home, a 2-1 loss to Cambridge at home, a 2-0 loss at Plymouth, and a 1-0 win at Sheffield Weds. In those eight matches Bradford have scored nine goals and let in five. They have kept five clean sheets and have been shut out only once. On the road they have been especially sharp, winning four of their last five away games. Their last match was 14 days ago, a narrow 1-0 win away at Luton.

When the two clubs have met before the games have been tight affairs, with few goals and both sides often scoring. The pattern suggests a low-scoring contest where a single strike can decide the outcome. Given Bradford’s recent defensive solidity and Guiseley’s modest scoring record, we expect another game with few chances and a limited number of goals.

Our pick is Guiseley to score two or fewer goals. We think Guiseley will finish the match with around 0.9 goals on average, and the bet asks for them not to exceed two. The chance of that happening is about 95 out of 100, and the price of 1.34 is longer than our own reading, so it looks attractive. The pick would go wrong only if Guiseley find a sudden burst of firepower and score three or more, which seems unlikely given their recent form and the strength of the opposition.