Oxford City v Leicester prediction

What to expect

We expect about 1.2 goals from Oxford City and 1.9 from Leicester, so Leicester come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Our pick: Leicester to win. Leicester shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.9), and we make them about 71% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.

We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.29, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.