How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Dreams FC to win 64%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Dreams FC and 0.7 from Vision FC, so Dreams FC come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Vision FC come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Dreams FC to win. Dreams FC are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-0.7), and we make them about 66% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.73, which works out at about 58 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Dreams FC have won one of the last four meetings, with three drawn.
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