What to expect
We expect about 1.9 goals from AEK and 1.0 from PAOK, so AEK come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 2.8 goals between the two (xG 1.9-1.0), landing about 61% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 58 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.76, which works out at about 57 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
PAOK have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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