How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Vasas Budapest to win 39%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Újpest and 1.6 from Vasas Budapest, so Vasas Budapest come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Vasas Budapest to win. Vasas Budapest shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.6), and we make them about 41% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 39 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.90, which works out at about 34 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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