What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Al-Karma and 0.8 from Al Karkh, so Al-Karma come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Al-Karma come into this on three straight wins. Al Karkh come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Al-Karma to win. Al-Karma are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-0.7), and we make them about 57% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.40, which works out at about 71 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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