Erbil v Al-Mosul prediction

What to expect

We expect about 1.6 goals from Erbil and 1.0 from Al-Mosul, so Erbil come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Al-Mosul come into this on four straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Erbil to win. Erbil are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-1.0), and we make them about 61% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.59, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.