Newroz v Al Minaa prediction

What to expect

Newroz host Al Minaa in the Iraq Stars League on 16 October. Newroz sit second in the table with 18 points from nine games and a +10 goal difference. One place above them, Al-Karma lead the pack by five points, while Al Zawraa sit just behind Newroz on the same points. Al Minaa are eighth, also on nine games, with 12 points and a neutral goal difference. They are level on points with Duhok above them and sit one point ahead of Al Quwa Al Jawiya. Both clubs are looking to improve their positions – Newroz hoping to close the gap to the leaders and Al Minaa hoping to climb back into the top half.

Newroz have not lost in their last four matches. They beat Zakho 1-0 away, then drew 0-0 with Ghaz Al-Shamal SC away, followed by a 2-0 win at Al-Jolan SC away and a 3-0 victory over Al-Mosul at home. In those four games they have scored six goals and kept four clean sheets, conceding none. Only one of the games produced three or more goals and neither side has been on the losing end. The side’s unbeaten run stretches back seven days.

Al Minaa’s recent form is more mixed. They began with a 2-0 home win over Ghaz Al-Shamal SC, then drew 1-1 with Duhok at home. After that they suffered a 2-1 away loss to Al Kahrabaa and most recently drew 1-1 with Naft Maysan at home. Over these four fixtures they have found the net five times while letting in four, keeping just one clean sheet. Three of the games featured three or more goals and both teams scored in each of those. Their last match was six days ago.

When the two sides have met before, the games have tended to be low-scoring affairs, with few chances for both teams to find the net. Given Newroz’s recent defensive solidity and Al Minaa’s tendency to share goals, we expect another tight contest. The numbers suggest Newroz are the stronger side, but Al Minaa can still threaten, especially after their recent draws.

We back Newroz or a draw at 1.23. The price matches our reading of the game – Newroz are likely to score, but a clean sheet for them is not guaranteed and Al Minaa have shown they can find a goal. If Newroz win by a single goal or the match ends level, our pick succeeds, giving us an 83 per cent chance of success. The pick would fail only if Al Minaa win outright or if Newroz are held scoreless, both of which look unlikely given the recent form.