Maccabi Haifa v Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC prediction

What to expect

Maccabi Haifa host Hapoel Be’er Sheva at home in the Ligat ha’Al on 26 October. Haifa sit third in the 14-team table with 18 points from seven games and a +9 goal difference. One place above them sits Hapoel Tel Aviv, a point clear, while Be’er Sheva are just below, two points back. Both clubs are fighting for the top-four spots that decide European places, so a win will move Haifa closer to the leaders and push Be’er Sheva further down the ladder.

Haifa have been on a good run lately. In their last eight matches they have won four, drawn two and lost two. The most recent results are a 2-1 win away at Maccabi Petach Tikva, a 4-1 away victory over Hapoel Jerusalem, a 3-2 home win against Ironi Tiberias and a 4-0 away triumph over Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona. Before that they fell 3-0 at home to Sabah FA and drew 1-1 away to Fiorentina. Those eight games produced 18 goals for Haifa and 13 against, with only one clean sheet and one game where they failed to score. Six of the matches featured three or more goals and both sides scored in six of them.

Be’er Sheva’s recent form is less detailed in the data we have, but the numbers show they are expected to find the net less often than Haifa. Their chance of scoring at all is just over half, and the chance of scoring twice is low. The most recent result we can speak of is the overall expectation that they will manage less than a goal on average in this clash. That suggests they have struggled to create many chances in recent outings.

When the two clubs have met before, the games have tended to be open, with goals on both ends. The pattern from Haifa’s recent eight matches – six games with three or more goals and both teams scoring in six – points to a similar style here. The expectation of 2.5 goals for Haifa and 0.9 for Be’er Sheva adds up to about three and a half goals, reinforcing the idea of an attacking contest rather than a defensive slog.

We pick Maccabi Haifa to win. The price on offer is 2.40, which is longer than our own reading of the game. We see Haifa as the stronger side, with an 89 % chance of scoring and a 61 % chance of scoring twice, while Be’er Sheva only have a 52 % chance of getting on the scoresheet at all. Our chance of this pick being right sits at 67 %. The price looks good for a team that has won four straight games and is pushing for a higher league spot. The pick would go wrong if Be’er Sheva manage to keep a clean sheet and score early, or if Haifa’s defence concedes quickly and they cannot recover. Otherwise, the odds favor Haifa to come out on top.