How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals and the game finished with 1. We made Over 1.5 goals 63%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.9 goals from Shimizu S-Pulse and 1.0 from Avispa Fukuoka, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 1.9 goals (xG 0.9-1.0), and two is enough to land it, landing about 66% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.39, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Shimizu S-Pulse have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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