V-Varen Nagasaki v Sanfrecce Hiroshima prediction

What to expect

We expect about 0.9 goals from V-Varen Nagasaki and 1.9 from Sanfrecce Hiroshima, so Sanfrecce Hiroshima come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Our pick: Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win. Sanfrecce Hiroshima shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-1.9), and we make them about 64% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.

We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.43, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.