Verdy v Chiba: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.1 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Chiba to score 1 or fewer 73%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.2 goals from Verdy and 0.9 from Chiba, so Verdy come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.

Chiba come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Chiba to score 1 or fewer. This is about Chiba's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 0.9 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 73%.

We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.