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Football/K League 1/Daejeon Hana Citizen v Gwangju FC
K League 1

Daejeon Hana Citizen v Gwangju FC prediction

Daejeon Hana Citizen crestDaejeon Hana Citizen6th of 12 · 43 ptsWDWDW
v
Gwangju FC crestGwangju FC12th of 12 · 18 ptsLDDW

What to expect

We expect about 1.9 goals from Daejeon Hana Citizen and 1.0 from Gwangju FC, so Daejeon Hana Citizen come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Our pick: Daejeon Hana Citizen to win. Daejeon Hana Citizen are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-1.0), and we make them about 60% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.40, which works out at about 71 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.

What the numbers say
✓Daejeon Hana Citizen are unbeaten in their last five — three wins and two draws.
✓Gwangju FC have won one of their last four.

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